This is the third of a four-part series. Please bring to my attention any typo's or something that just doesn't make sense......scanners are not 100 percent. I appreciate all the kind words for posting these articles. I know that true APBA Baseball fans will benefit from the wealth of information here. Reward yourself and get the updated, 1995 edition of this four-part article from the APBA Journal - see Redskin's home page for the address to order. APBA Primer Reading The Cards ----Part 3 - Pitching by Stephen Hall reproduced with permission The APBA Journal, April 1991 It’s a typical afternoon at Candlestick park, with cold damp winds swirling the concession debris around the no man’s land between the outfield fences and the grandstand wall. Bottom of the ninth, Giants down by two. Brett Butler, the center fielder for the Giants (this is 1990), is at the plate, trying to do what he does so well, which is get on base. The pitcher goes into his windup, and as he rears back, the odd sound of plastic cubes rattling in a cup is heard above the murmur of the crowd. The big Red pitcher’s arm whips forward, and the plastic rattle becomes a clatter of tumbling hexahedrons. The ball streaks toward the plate, heavy with the gaze of every spectator in the park, while the Diamond Vision board flashes a cryptic message that no eye sees: 31. Butler launches his swing, but before the bat crosses the plate, the ball is already burrowing in the catcher’s mitt. It was a beautiful swing, almost picture perfect. On a scale of 1-11, we would have to rate it high --- give it a 9. “Steeerrr”! observes the umpire, as he jabs his left fist into the belly of an invisible team mascot, “Yer-out” “What the....” gasps Butler, “that was a 9 all the way!” “Wudjaspect,” wonders the catcher as he pegs the ball thirdbaseward, “Dibble’s Grade A.” “The #@*%@&# gets enough Kays off his XY, now even the nines are whiffs?” “Next time, do it with a guy on first,” sneers Reed. “Betcha million bucks it’d be a scratch single tord Larkin.” OK, OK, this never really happened, except maybe in the innards of several thousand personal computers re-enacting a confrontation between Butler and Dibble thanks to APBA Computer Baseball. The numbers that were analyzed in the first two installments of this guide to reading APBA cards create the hits, walks, errors, and outs that batters are prone to. But batters are not hitting balls off a tee. They must contend with hardball hurled their way by antagonistic pitchers. Whether a pitcher/batter confrontation is a hit or walk or out or whatever requires that the hitter’s result be compared to the pitcher's ability to influence that outcome before we can determine the final result of the play. APBA's concept for simulating the pitcher/hitter confrontation is to look first to the hitter’s result in every instance, then determine if that result is altered by the pitcher. Other simulation games follow the more chronological sequence of deriving a pitcher outcome first. If the pitcher does not determine the result of the play, the batter gets his cut. Yet another approach is to let some random outcomes be determined by the batter’s ratings, while others are taken from the pitcher's card. No single approach is 'correct,' but APBA appeals to this observers aesthetic sensibilities. The image of APBA is of a pitcher's ability reflected in his propensity to take away hits from the opposition. The contrast between good pitching ability and mediocre performance can hinge on the difference of just one hit more or less per nine innings pitched. As we explore the process by which hits are converted to outs (and outs to hits), the often subtle differences between one pitcher and another will become evident. Pitcher cards look pretty much the same as batter cards in APBA. Since pitchers can, and sometimes do, come to bat, they need to have an array of batting outcomes to reflect their, usually modest, hitting abilities. The plate appearance outcomes, on the lower portion of the card, can be analyzed in the same way as any other batter, using the techniques described in the earlier installments of this series. Each pitchers card recreates his actual previous season's batting results, even if he came to the plate only a handful of times. A few relief pitchers each season will earn 'monster' cards because they may, for example, have come to the plate a total of nine times, but in those nine appearances they hit two singles, walked twice, and connected on one pitchers mistake for a tater. American league pitchers, unless they get to the World Series, do not bat. These non-hitters in a DH world are assigned a generic hitters card. The batting portion of Roger Clemens' card will look just like the batting card of Frank Tanana: 7-8-9-21-23-36-13-13-13-13-etc. There are those fans who would prefer that National League pitchers be given batting results that reflect career hitting ability, rather than single season results, but APBA stands by its literal replication of hitting outcomes for all batters. They are not nearly so literal with pitching grade assignments, but that is another story. In this article, we are strictly empiricists. Above the batting outcomes on the pitcher's card, and directly below his name, is a line which details his rated pitching ability. It is remarkably cryptic. Look at the card of David Andrew 'Cy' Stieb. We read Grade B Pitcher (2) (Y) (Z). What does this tell us about Stieb as a pitcher? First and foremost, his grade. Stieb is a Grade B Pitcher. In APBA, pitchers are assigned one of six grades: A, B, C, D, A&C, or A&B. The bottom of the barrel in pitching ability is a Grade D. One step up from the cellar is Grade C. Grade B pitchers are better, and Grade A pitchers are outstanding. Every season a handful of pitchers earn an A&C rating, and once in a generation, we witness a season long A&B performance (perfection, thy name is Eckersley). Are six categories enough to differentiate pitchers from one another? Can two pitchers as constrasting as Joe Magrane and Charlie Hough be as signed a common grade (C) and left at that? The answer is, that in the Basic Game of APBA, they are pretty much equivalent. The letter codes that follow the grade will help to differentiate pitchers from each other, but the grade is the primary determiner of pitching ability, and in APBA, one Grade C is as good, or bad, as another. The digit on the rating line is for defensive ability will be either a 1 or a 2. All players are rated for their ability to play their position, and pitchers are no different from other position players in that regard. We will have more to say about defensive ratings in the next article in this series. For now, just accept that the (2) means that Stieb is above average at fielding his position. The letter ratings are concerned with two aspects of pitching, power, and control. The power rating affects the number of outs that will be obtained by this pitcher as strikeouts. Every pitcher is assigned an X, a Y, an XY, or a blank power rating. A pitcher with no X or Y will only strike out batters when the batting result from the hitter’s card is a red 13. A pitcher assigned a (Y), like Stieb, will get a few additional strikeouts per game, these coming via conversions of other outs into strikeouts. Most commonly, a Y pitcher earns strikeouts with the bases empty on red results 33 and 34. Rather than a popout to 2B or SS, these results for the Y pitcher are SO, strike three, K, whiff. The X-rated pitcher is not obscene, at least not to his manager. The X power rating earns strikeouts from three red hitting outcomes when no one is on base ... 25, 27, and 29 all being converted into strikeouts. A pitcher with an XY (really X&Y because he gets the strikeouts from either X-type or Y-type conversions) will consistently receive 7 or more K results per nine innings (think Nolan Ryan). With men on base, the X and Y will also convert certain fielding results into strikeouts, the most common being the man-on first Y strikeout on red 29 and 34 and the X strikeout on red 27. (Although it is getting ahead of myself, it seems right to point out here that Grade A pitchers can obtain strikeouts through the conversion of hit result 9 into result 13, a strikeout. This is why in our opening drama, Dibble, who is a Grade A/20, was able to strike out Butler on a 9 result. More on this later. It would seem that a high strikeout power pitcher is an unalloyed pleasure, and for those who believe that such pitchers have a better and longer quality career, owning X and XY rated pitchers gives the manager a smug sense of security. Certainly with men on base, a strikeout is prized because it prevents any possibility for the advancement of runners. While this is true, it also precludes the possibility of double plays, and players who use the boards in tabletop play will see many lost opportunities for double plays when an X strikeout would have been a 5-4-3 DP or something similar. Curiously, in the Master Game the better fielding pitchers are hurt by the X, while the poor fielders benefit. [In the Basic Game, fielding is determined for the team as a whole, not on the basis of individual fielding. See our next installment.] With runners at first and third, a red 29 result can have one of three fielding outcomes: Out at first, runners advance; out at first, runner on third holds; or a manager's choice of either out at first and runner at third holds or a 1-6-3 DP with the runner on third scoring if there were no outs. The poor fielding pitcher (for red 29 is the pitcher's fielding result value) suffers the run scoring outcome most of time, while the good fielding pitcher stops the run and is often able to turn the DP. But all X pitchers get a strikeout in this situation, leaving the runners at the comers for the next batter to potentially bring home. In contrast, the Y strikeout with first-and-third arises on red result 27, which has no DP outcome at any fielding rating. The other letter code assignment relates to the pitchers control, ability, and directly affects the number of walks he will allow during the course of a game. The best rating obtainable is a (ZZ) rating. This code is new to APBA for 1991, and is given to a very few pitchers who yield extremely low rates of walks per nine innings. More common, and up to now the best available rating, is the (Z), as we see on Stieb’s card. This rating is given to pitchers who hold down their walks to below approximately three per nine innings. Pitchers with less control ability get a blank, or no control letter. The wildmen, those throwers who give the manager heartburn and ulcers by walking batters right and left are assigned code (W). How do the control ratings affect batter out comes? The red 14 result on the batter’s card usually earns him a base on balls, and this occurs whenever first base is unoccupied, or when there are runners on first-and-third (in the latter instance, the lead runner is not advanced by the walk). The exception is when a ZZ pitcher is on the mound. Then, when a red 14 occurs with bases empty or runners at the corners, the result is two called balls, rather than ball four. The batter would have to obtain a second consecutive 14 to earn a walk under these conditions. In all other instances where first base is occupied, the Z and ZZ pitchers convert a red 14 into a called ball. The batter will not earn a walk unless he comes up with four consecutive red 14's, a statistical improbability even for Jack Clark (he of the eight red 14's). [Note, that at the time this is written (1991) the computer version of APBA Baseball does not recognize or implement the (Z) control code. We would expect that a future version of Computer Baseball will adapt to the Z, but for now the pitchers who in the Basic and Master games benefit from the ZZ are treated as Z pitchers in the Computer Game.] W rated pitchers, like those with no control rating, give up walks whenever a red 14 occurs, regardless of the on base situation. In addition, certain fielding outs are converted into walks, just as the X and Y convert certain fielding outs into strikeouts. The effect of the W can be devastating. In the Master Game and Computer Game, the W converts red result 35, otherwise a foul pop out, into a walk a little over 95% of the time. The Basic Game version leaves the 35 alone, but makes rare play numbers 37-40 into ball four, and every player but the second base man has one of these four numbers on his card. (Do second base men walk less than everybody else?) With men on base, the W really gets interesting. Perhaps “excruciating” is a better word for it. Not only are 35's frequently converted to walks, but some potential double play outcomes, obtainable on red result 12, instead become walks. If you think it is painful foregoing a DP on an X strikeout result, imagine seeing an inning ending DP converted into a walk by the wild and crazy guy on the mound. It should be noted here that the Computer Game does not religiously apply the Z rating in all instances. Whether by accident or design, there are times when a player will draw a walk against a Z pitcher with first base occupied, other than in the first-and-third situation. My sense it is by design, not accident, because it tends to occur when the batter has a substantial number of red 14's on his card. On balance, this is a good thing, because it is silly to say that such and such a pitcher never walks a batter with a man on first. If it is your pitcher up there on the mound, you might not agree with me. Fortunately it is a fairly rare outcome, because otherwise the Z would lose its meaning. It would be nice to know that the Z occasionally gets a ball one or foul strike count on a 14 when first base is open. That would be fair compensation. But it is difficult to discern whether this is a feature of the Computer Game. Those of you who play only at the computer can merely guess when a strikeout or walk (or hit!) has resulted from a converted fielding play. One of the less apparent benefits of playing the computer version is in how it spares us the knowledge of what might have been on many plays. Many an APBA player has been permanently scarred by calling for a sac bunt and then rolling a 66. Such outcomes can and do alter the strategies of many APBA managers. I am one of those people who uses up most of his power number dice results consulting the Fielding Column Finder Chart. The computer game sagely refrains from revealing the random number outcome that produced the play described. That alone may be worth the price of the product. The Master Game and Computer Game of Baseball add several additional rating categories to the characterization of pitching skills. Pitchers are rated for their Move-To-First (holding potential base stealers), their propensity to avoid balks and hit batters, their endurance, and frequency of throwing wild pitches. They are also assigned home run ratings, differentiating them from one another on their likelihood to yield a home nun to any particular batter. Most significantly, these game versions translate the six basic pitcher grades into 30 numerical grades for raw pitching ability. Because this series was originally conceived as a primer on card reading, we have chosen to ignore the Master Game ratings that do not get printed on the face of the player card. Just as we are choosing not to explore the details of base stealing and, in our next installment, defensive arm ratings, so too we are not going to examine the nuances of WP2, BKO, and GHLM rating. But we cannot do justice to the analysis of pitchers, or to the effect of pitching on hitting ability, unless we consider the Master Game grading system for pitchers and the batter handicap ratings. Since there are six basic grades and 30 Master Game grades, it seems logical that each letter grade would equate to a five point range of numeric Master Game ratings. This is essentially accurate, and each batter grade does have an equivalent five point range, with a pitcher graded between 1 and 5 in the MG, being a Grade D in the Basic Game, MG grades 6-10 a Grade C, and so on up the ladder. However, the device in the Master/Computer Game that determines the effect of pitcher grade on batter outcome, called the Pitcher Change Table does not, upon close examination, map these five point ranges to equivalent results for like graded pitchers on the Basic Game charts. That is, where a Grade C pitcher in the bases empty situation will turn a red result 9 into an out in the Basic Game, the 9 is a hit against MG Grade 6 and 7, which are supposed to be the equivalent of a Grade C, and an out against MG Grades 8-12, even though Grades 11 and 12 are considered equivalent to a B grade. Likewise, a Basic Game Grade B pitcher will, in the same bases empty situation, convert red 8 results to outs, yet in the MG, this effect is accomplished by pitchers with grade ratings of 1-30, but not Grades 11 and 12. Most ominous is the effect of the table on pitchers rated Grade 1 or 2. These poor souls actually have some fielding results, which normally are outs, converted into base hit numbers. The standard Grade D pitcher in the Basic Game is more or less thought of as a batting practice pitcher, letting the hitters be sole determinants of whether they will obtain hits or outs. Not so the lowly Grades 1 and 2, who will surrender hits on all regular hit results, and yield hits on red 12 (Grades 1 and 2) and red 35 (Grade 1 ) as well. It appears that pitchers in the range 8 to 12 are true C pitchers, and those in the 13 to 17 range are true B's. Those hurlers on the cusp ... Grades 6-7, 11-12, 16-17 ... might be thought of as D+, C+ and B+ pitchers, respectively. That is because along with the more usual conversion effects they share with their like-graded brethren, they also succeed in converting some less common hit numbers, meaning 10's and 11's, into fielding outs. Likewise, we can think of the Grade 1 and 2 pitchers as D-. If you play the Master Game, you must be aware that not all Grade B, or Grade A or Grade C, pitchers are alike. Mike Harkey and Oil Can Boyd may both be Grade B, but Boyd's MG grade of 13 is far more valuable than rookie Harkey's grade of 11. One factor which works to bring the Master Game grades closer to the equivalent Basic Game grades is the batter handicap system. Every hitter in the Master Game is assigned a batting handicap that applies when he is facing a pitcher who throws from the same side that the hitter hits. The handicap ranges from zero to five. When it applies, the handicap is added to the pitcher's base grade before the Change Table is consulted. Thus a right-handed batter with a handicap of 2 facing a Grade 11 RH pitcher will make him the equivalent of a Grade 13 pitcher, a true B. A handicap of 5 will raise a same sided pitcher one whole grade equivalent. Players with a handicap of 3 or more are typically platooned, because their handicap so often alters the effectiveness of the pitcher they are facing if he throws from the same side. Left-handed batters are more likely to be given a 4 or 5 handicap, because they tend to suffer in performance much more when facing lefties than do right-handed batters facing righties, the most common matchup for both batters and pitchers. When a handicap would put a pitcher over the grade threshold, it is probably a good idea to rest that batter unless he is such a good hitter or a valuable fielder, that the batting handicap must be overlooked. As was mentioned in the last installment of this series, the hit values most often affected by pitchers are the red 8 and red 9 result. In most on base situations, the 8 is an out when a true B or A is pitching, and a 9 is an out when an A or a C is pitching. The condition that makes B pitchers better than C pitchers is the fact that most batters have more red 8's than red 9's, in either a 3-2 or 4-2 ratio. It is tougher to get a hit against a C than it is against a D, since D pitchers do not stop either the 8 or the 9. It is tougher still to get a hit against a B, because he stops three or four 8's on the card, while the C stops the 9's, of which there are never more, nor less, than two. When playing the Master or Computer Game, remember that the break points for these effects is between Grades 7 and 8, Grades 12 and 13, and between Grades 17 and 18. In each case the one additional point is of significant benefit in differentiating the pitchers from each other. Just as we observed that regarding hitters' power numbers, the on base situation has a determining effect on the interpretation of each result, so too does the on base situation affect the application of pitcher grade to the alteration of the hitter play result. We cannot say that a Grade B pitcher always turns a red 8 result into an out. He will in most cases, but in one situation, with runners at first and third, the 8 will go for a hit against a Grade B. Likewise, the 8 is an out against a Grade A in every situation but two: with a runner on third, or with runners at second and third. In these two situations, the 8 single is still a good hit. And while the red 7 is generally a base hit against most any pitcher, in two common situations, the 7 will be an out: Grade A pitcher with a runner on first will turn a 7 into an out, and the Grade B will gain an out against a 7 result with runners at the comers. The March, 1990 edition of the Journal contains a table, on pages 6 and 7, that displays the effects of the Pitcher Change Tables for all 30 grades in all eight on base situations. A casual perusal of the chart shows that, for example, a Grade 12 pitcher with runners on second and third will convert red results 9, 10, and 11 into outs. With runners on first and third, a Grade 11 pitcher converts an 8 to an out (but not a 9) and changes a 5 into a 7. Remember last time we noted that a red 5 precludes a home run with runners on first and third? Not against every pitcher! The Grade 11 (and 6, 16, 21, 25, and 30) will transform a three nun home run into a single base hit. Veteran APBA players have memorized most of the contents of this chart. Oh, they may not remember that a Grade 24 converts an 11 into a 32 with a runner on third (the only on base situation where that grade does convert a red 11), but they know the more common situations intimately. There are a few standard situations that every APBA player should be aware of, because they can have a critical effect on their pitching substitution decisions. One of them is with runners at the corners. In this situation, the world is turned upside down; red 8's are hits against true B pitchers, but are outs against true C's. The red 9 is a hit against both B and C pitchers, where the C would usually get an out on a 9. And red 7 is an out when the pitcher’s grade is between 13 and 17 inclusive (true B), whereas red 7's typically go for hits against B and C pitchers in other on base situations. Now consider the common man-on-first situation. The true A (Grade 18-22) will turn a red 7 into an out here, whereas on most other charts the red 7 is a clean single. On the other hand, the red 9 goes for an infield hit against the A, whereas 9's are usually outs against A's in every other on base situation (this is what catcher Reed was referring to in our opening fantasy). But what’s this? A red 9 is an out against a Grade 17! Consider this scenario: Rickey Henderson has just drawn a leadoff walk off of Seattle pitcher Hanson, who is a Grade 14. Carney Lansford is the next batter. Do you call the hit and nun, or go for a straight steal? As it happens, Lansford has a batter handicap of 3 which he yields to Hanson, making the pitcher a Grade 17, and thus both the 8 and 9 are lost. Better to steal second, because if that works, Lansford gets his 9's back (although then his one red 11 will turn to mud). The red 11 is a lost cause in the runner-on-first setting against Grades 4, 7, 10, 14, 16, 19, 21, 22, 26, 28, and 29. Not such a good spot for Alex Cole, eh? The red 10 goes by the boards against 14 different grades, including several that also pilfer the red 11. True A pitchers (Grades 18-22) are also jeopardized by two infrequent on base situations, namely man-on-third, and runners at second and third. In these two situations only, a red 8 will be a hit and score a run, or two. The 8 is an out for an A in all other on base situations. So, you are ahead by a run, the opponents down to their last out, but the last batter hit a triple. Do you bring in a reliever? Depends on the hit numbers on the next batter’s card. If he has four red 8's and no 7's, the best pitcher may be a Grade 10! Remember that a reliever gets a 5 point boost against his first batter. It the man at the plate has a 2 handicap, the Grade 10 is promoted to a 17 for this one batter, and a 17 gets an out against an 8 or an 11. Of course, if the result is a 9, then the right move would have been to the bullpen ace who would have been an A facing that last hitter, but the percentage move in that situation was probably to the Grade C 10. Another curiosity of the charts is the runner on second situation. When the pitcher is a Grade 17 facing a batter here, a result red 0 (in the first column) does not call for a second dice roll and a look at the second column, it is automatically converted into a 7. So you may give up a run, but the hitter is held to a single and may not himself come around to score, as he might if he had doubled or trippled, or even homered! And if the man on second is slow, that pitcher may not give up any runs that inning, even with the batter having rolled a 66. Some of the results we refer to as power results, namely red 2 through 5, are subjected to conversion by the Pitcher Change Tables. These outcomes can be altered into base hit numbers 7 or 8 under certain conditions. The incidence of these changes is so infrequent that it usually does not pay to mind them in making pitching and pinch hitting decisions, but some times they may be absolutely critical. We already mentioned the conversion of red 5 to 7 in the first and third situation. Another is with first and second occupied, where the result is a red 4. Typically a home run, but Grade 5, 10, 15, 21, 22, 25, or 26 will make hash of that red 4, souring it into a 7 single. It you need three runs desperately in this situation, beware the boys with red 4 at black 11 if the pitcher grades out to one of these numbers. Certain players have the disadvantage of being awarded two red 10's. Randy Milligan, Alan Trammell, and Robbie Thompson immediately come to mind in the 1991 card set based upon the 1990 season. Many other players have a single red 10, but where there are two, it pays to pay attention. With bases empty, a 10 is an out against a Grade 7, 12, 15-17, and 20-28. Milligan has a 3 handicap, so he might profit from an off day against a right-handed Grade 9 or a left-handed Grade 12. Randy might come in handy better as a pinch hitter, perhaps with runners at first-and-second or at the corners, where his 10's are not a burden. (Of course, if the starting pitcher you are facing lacks a Z rating, then Milligan's many 14's probably override the disadvantage of his two 10's.) If your catching staff consists of Parrish and Biggio, sit Parrish against a RH Grade 11, because his 2 handicap makes him lose all four of his 8's, whereas Biggio with no handicap will find his red 10, as well as his 11 and three 8's, useful. But against a Grade 15, the better choice is probably Parrish, because giving up 2 points raises the pitcher to 17 which is still true B-land, and anyway Parrish has that power stick and a better throw rating, while Craig will lose his 10 (as well as his three 8's) to the Grade 15. The effects of the Pitcher Change Tables regarding base hit numbers 7, 8, and 9 are virtually the same in the Master/Computer Game as they are in the Basic Game. In that latter version, the boards contain a simplified Pitcher Change Table keyed off the letter grades. This is where the A&C and A&B type pitchers got their origins, as in that setting an A&C would get the outcome of either a Grade A or a Grade C, whichever was needed to get the out. The effects of results 10 and 11 do not map as clearly from the Basic Game charts to the Master/Computer Game. Conversions of 10's and 11's are scattered about the Change Table, and it is clear that APBA has used hit-to-out conversions of these numbers to effect within grade differentiations of pitchers, so that a Grade 12 (for example) is somewhat better than a Grade 11 (because he stops a red 10 result), but still not as good as a Grade 13. Utilizing the knowledge of how play results are altered by various grades in various on base situations is what gives rise to the so-called practice of playing ”APBA-ball”. An expert APBA manager can look at a batter’s card and quickly determine the best grade pitcher to insert in a crucial at bat situation. Likewise, when on offense he will sort through his pinch hitters looking for the player with the right combination of hit numbers against the pitcher on the mound. Replayers find this sort of behavior reprehensible, just as they blanch at the thought of leaving in a relief pitcher with a monster card to come to bat in a crucial RBI situation. In draft league play, behavior of this sort is common. Remember, we are being empiricists here. Knowledge is neutral, it is the application of knowledge to good or bad ends that gives rise to moral and ethical behavior, as well as to opinions of what constitutes such. Our attitude is that more knowledge is better than less knowledge, and it is in vein that we present the information in this series and encourage every APBA Baseball player to be better informed regarding the operation of the APBA Baseball simulation system. What you do with this knowledge is your business, but if it makes you a better baseball competitor, then my goal has been accomplished. In the last installment of this primer on reading the cards, we will explore player defensive rating, explain how players compare to one another defensively, and illustrate how valuable are the good defenders, and how deleterious the bad fielders, in the outcomes of fielding plays in APBA Baseball.