`This is the second of a four-part series. Please bring to my attention any typo's or 
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appreciate all the kind words for posting these articles. I know that true APBA 
Baseball fans will benefit from the wealth of information here. Reward yourself and 
get the updated, 1995 edition of this four-part article from the APBA Journal - see 
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APBA Primer
Reading APBA Cards ----Part 2

by Stephen Hall
reproduced with permission
The APBA Journal, April 1991

The meat and potatoes of APBA Baseball are the columns of red numbers on the face of 
each player card. Each batter’s plate appearance consists of rolling dice to obtain a 
result off the hitter’s card, which is then indexed into the play result charts to 
determine the outcome of the appearance. In the context of the computer game, the 
computer does the dice rolling and chart lookups for us, but the process is the same 
whether on the table or inside the computer. In the first installment of this series 
on reading the cards, we examined the range of numbers that appear on the hitter’s 
cards, and provided methods for determining the relative value of a given hitter on 
the basis of his collection of play result numbers, primarily those which result in 
hits and walks, the good stuff. This month, we will take a closer look at some of 
that good stuff, and then turn our attention to the dark side, the varieties of ways 
batters can make outs. Many player cards consist of two columns of red numbers next 
to the black numbers that relate to the dice roll values. At first glance, these my 
seem more intimidating to evaluate, but for the most part, looking at a two column 
card is the same as looking at a single column card. The only time the second column 
comes into play is when the result in the first column is a zero. Then the dice are 
rolled again, and a result from the second column is used for the final play result.

Why do some players have double column cards, while others have only single columns? 
APBA strives to make the batter’s card as accurate a representation of his offensive 
performance as possible and the single column card cannot successfully reflect the 
performance of many players. For example, a player who hits a modest number of home 
runs during the course of a season would not deserve a first column 1, which is the 
home run result. Yet to hit the four or five home runs he did connect for, there must 
be some way to allow for him to achieve his actual total of power hits. Thus his card 
will display two columns of red numbers, with a smattering of red 1's in the second 
column. The first column on his card will be constructed in the same way as any other 
batter’s card, with its assortment of hit, walk, and out results. But in the key 
power hit location—66, 11, perhaps also 33, and 22—he will be assigned a zero, rather 
than an extra base hit number (1 through 6). The second column will be filled with 
numbers from 1 to 8, and perhaps a few 11's.

    Reading Double Column Cards

So how do we “read” a double column card? First look at the card as if it consists of 
only the first column, and do so using the methods we de scribed in the first 
installment. Consider each zero in column one as a potential base hit, but as of yet 
unknown value. A card with four zeros has pretty solid power credentials; this is 
often the card of a prolific doubles hitter. A card with only two zeros and a 7 or 8 
on 33 is a singles hitter, typically the card of an average middle infielder. With 
three zeros, you have a player with decent power, but still not a bona fide slugger. 
But how much power? Now we have to count. Scan tforough the second column, and add up 
all the 1's you can find. Next, multiply this value by the number of zeros in the 
first column. Compare this result to 36. The closer to 36 this number is, the closer 
this hitter resembles a power hitter deserving of a first column 1. Take as an 
example, Robin Yount's 1990 card. Everybody thinks he had an off year, and compared 
to an MVP season, just about anything would be an off year. The lack of a first 
column 1 on Robin's card seems to confirm this. But look closer. Count the second 
column 1's. I find eleven. Yount has three zeros in the first column, so his FOR 
value is 33/36 (3x11 divided by 36). This is very nearly enough to warrant a first 
column 1, but not quite. Now look at Fred Lynn's card. Only two zeros here, he must 
have really lost his stroke. But count the second column 1's. Seventeen, altogether. 
That makes 34/36, slightly more likely than Yount’s chances of a round tripper.

    Second Column Singles

Of course, power is more than hitting home runs, and it is often the case that 
hitters with double column cards have only a modest ability to accumulate extra bases 
on hits, even though they can reach the bleachers with some frequency (as Lynn did 
last year). Others in double column land are the gap hitters, the guys that get “leg 
doubles” and triples, but who have trouble reaching the fences on the fly. Some 
people will count 6's in the second column after the 1 's (and 2's, 4's, and 5's), 
but I find it easier to look next at the singles in column two. After I get a count 
of the 1 's in column two, I next count the total of 7's, 8's, and 11's (there will 
not be any 9's or 10's). Again, multiply this by the number of zeros in column one. 
This is the rate at which singles will occur on the power results. Take Jose Lind as 
an example. Chico has three zeros, and in the second column, one 8, two 7's, and six 
11's. That is nine second column singles, and his singles ratio is 27/36. One way 
that it helps is to look at this: Imagine that two of the zeros, the ones at 11 and 
66, produce extra base hits, mostly doubles, a smattering of triples, and a very rare 
home run. The zero on 33, on the other hand, will be a single a bit more than two 
thirds of the time. It is only a base hit about one time in three. Now compare this 
to Barry Larkin's card. Barry has just two zeros, so he has less chance for an extra 
base hit than Lind. But when he does connect (get a column one zero), it is much more 
likely to be a home run (6x2 or 12/36 vs Lind’s 1 x3 or 3/36), and it is guaranteed 
to be at least a double, so, overall, Lind may have more total extra base hits (in an 
equal number of plate appearances), but Larkin is superior in total bases. An 
occasional batter will have a 1 on 66 in the first column, but still have a double 
column card. This will happen when no combination of first column extra base hit 
numbers accurately duplicates a player’s assortment of actual extra base hits. In 
this case, he may have two or three zeros in addition to the first column 1. Matt 
Williams is a good example of this sort of hitter. His hit numbers read 
1-0-0-0-7-8-8-8-8-9-9, with nine second column 1's. Imagine this as a solid 1 on 66, 
and 27/36ths of a 1 on 11. Not too far off from Kevin Mitchell's 
1-1-4-6-7-8-8-8-9-9-10. Up to now, we have considered the group of red numbers from 7 
to 11 as the base hit results without really differentiating them, but each of these 
five values has as much unique personality as the six extra base hit numbers (1-6). 
And it is here that the Master/Computer game seriously diverges from the Basic game.

 

    Base Stealing Number

In the Basic game, base stealing is built into the play result charts. Hit number 11 
will, nearly always, result in a single followed by a steal of second base when the 
Basic game charts are used. Hit result 10 can likewise be a single and a steal of 
second, but with much less frequency than the 11 (the actual frequency is governed by 
the on base situation). In contrast, the Master/Computer game has an entirely 
separate component to regulate base stealing, so that 10's and 11's are used only to 
represent two different kinds of base hits. On the card, the first 11 will show up at 
black 15. The next at black 25, and if there is a third, it is usually at 51. The 
10's will follow this pattern as well, and if there are both 11's and 10's, the 11's 
take

precedence in this order. Some batters do not quite measure up to a full 11 based on 
bases stolen, but cannot replicate their actual stolen bases by being assigned one or 
two 10's. These players will often get a few second column 11's, which has an effect 
on frequency of that result similar to getting a few second column 1's. (For the sake 
of brevity, I am ignoring the 14* result. In the Master/Computer game it has no 
relevance, and this does not even show up when using the computer utility programs 
INNOVATOR or DSPLCARD).  Finding a 10 or 11 on black 51 can be disconcerting for an 
apprentice card reader, because we usually like to look at 31 and 51 for 9's, 8's, or 
14's. This just means you have to look a bit deeper. Is there a hit number on 35? If 
not, the batter has ten or fewer hit numbers. If there is, look next at 42, where 
there may be another hit number. This hit, if it exists, will be number twelve, with 
the thirteenth hit, if warranted, appearing at 64. When the two 9's on a player card 
are not both at black 31 and 51, they may appear at other standard base hit location, 
such as 55, 25, or 35. The point is to get a sense of the total hits, and this may be 
best accomplished by starting at black 64 and working backwards, to 42, 35, and 31. 
Efficiency is not as important as accuracy.

    Pitching’s Influence

In all versions of the game, the imposition of pitcher ability into the final outcome 
of a play result shows its primary influence in altering the out come of the base hit 
numbers. As a rule, the better the pitcher on the mound, the more base hits he is 
going to take away from the batters. This is reflected in the game system by making 
different base hit numbers subject to influence by different types of pitchers. Our 
next installment will consider the various ways in which pitchers influence the 
outcome of batter plate appearances, but for now we will characterize the various 
base hit numbers by the expected frequency which they result in hits or outs.  
Nearly all batters have two 9's and either three or four 8's on their card. In fact, 
the rule of the two 9's is a virtual law of nature; never three or more, virtually 
never only one (we leave out pitchers' batting results in this discussion). Why? 
Because a certain type of pitcher will convert 9's into outs. In the Basic game, it 
is the Grade C pitcher's advantage to take away hits on 9's. Most batters will have 
three or four 8's. This is due to the fact that the next higher grade of pitchers, 
Grade B in the Basic game, turn 8's into outs most of the time. The better the 
pitcher, the more hit numbers he will convert to outs. A Grade A pitcher “stops” both 
8's and 9's - most of the time. (In Part 3 I will explain why all the hedging.)  So 
far we have not mentioned the 7. This is the king of singles. A 7 will nearly always 
find its way onto the outfield grass. That is why 7's frequently appear at black 22 
and 33 on hitter's cards. Lacking a power number there, the batter will still have a 
virtually tamper proof base hit on that result.  An 11 is almost as good as a 7. 
(Actually it is better than a 7 in the Basic game, but weaker in the Master/Computer 
versions.) For evaluation purposes, you can look at an 11 as being comparable to a 7. 
Think of them both as being worth nearly a full single base hit. A 10, on the other 
hand, is only as good as an 8, not much better. It is a common rule of thumb to 
consider the combination 8-8-8-9-9 to be worth, on average, about four hits. The 10, 
and the fourth 8 on a card, can each be thought of roughly as half hits.

    Stat Oddities Cause Card Oddities

Keep in mind that the same collection of red results must serve the offensive needs 
of both the Basic game and Master/Computer game. Prolific base stealers, like Vince 
Coleman and Ricky Henderson, frequently have three or even four 11's on their cards. 
These may also appear in combination with 10's, and many more batters will have one 
or two 10's to reflect some base stealing ability. This is all necessary for the 
Basic game, which lacks a separate supporting mechanism to regulate base stealing. 
Since batters only hit so many singles, 11's and 10's often take the place of 7's and 
8's. Some batters who must be given one or more 11 's or 10's may yet be limited in 
their ability to hit for average. Since all batters get two 9's, it may be impossible 
to justify more than two 8’s for some batters. Howard Johnson is a good example of 
this. HoJo has just nine hit numbers, but the first four are 1-0-0-0. He has to get 
two 9's (it's the law), and his base stealing abilities earn him one 11, so there is 
room for only two 8's. HoJo thus can hit Grade B pitchers just as well as he hits 
Grade C pitchers. I recall a rare card a few years ago for Daryl Boston, who hit for 
average, but with speed and lots of power (his slugging percentage was double his 
batting average in 1988). Boston had only eight hit numbers, but they included 
1-0-0-0 and an 11. There was room for only three more base hit results, so APBA broke 
the law for Boston, giving him two 8's and only one 9. An exception that clearly 
proved the rule. He still had more 8's than 9's.  A batter will never be given more 
than four 8's. Consequently a high average hitter, prototypically Wade Boggs, will, 
among his usual twelve or thirteen hit numbers, get his two or three zeros, two 9's 
and four 8's; the rest will be 7’s. The Chicken Man had an off year in 1990 (only 11 
hit numbers), but consider a hitter like Chris Gwynn. Has some power, and although he 
is a good runner, he just didn't steal bases that year. This Gwynn ended up with hit 
numbers 1-4-7-7-7-7-8-8-8-9-9. His brother Tony has more hit numbers (12), but by 
earning a third power result (three zeros) plus an 11, APBA decided to give Tony four 
8's, and thus only two 7’s. Chris' performance in hitting singles probably warranted 
the eight full base hits that his assigned numbers imply, rather than 7.5 that would 
result if one of the 7’s was an 8. Nevertheless, card readers learn to prize hitters 
who have a 7 on 44, and the gentlemen who manage to obtain a 7 on 55 will typically 
bat high in the order, often second or third, because their ability to consistently 
whack solid singles is a skill to be treasured.  Being the most ubiquitous base hit 
value, the 8 can appear most anywhere on the card that hits are located. When it 
shows up on black 33, you know you have a truly weak hitter on your hands. Some 
hitters with good power and on base percentage, but low batting averages (meaning 
fewer singles), will be assigned an 8 on 22. This is the opposite of finding a 7 on 
55. Hitters like Jesse Barfield (1-5-6-8-8-8-9-9-10) can be a real disappointment in 
the cleanup spot, where a quality pitcher will obtain an out on a dice roll of 22, a 
result that most power hitters will at the very least turn in a solid single.

    Those Miserable Outs

So much for the hits; how about outs? Who cares? You should, because not all outs are 
created equal. Two out numbers should be particularly watched for, because they have 
some critical properties. Result 24, when the bases are empty, is a single ground out 
to shortstop. But put a man on first base, and a 24 is designed to leave managers 
gnashing their teeth. Now this grounder is the front end of a snappy double play. Two 
outs and one less base runner, just like that. The first 24 on a card will appear at 
dice roll 41. If one isn't there, the batter won't have any. If there's a 24 on 41, 
look at the black 26 ... if there's a 24 there, check out the black 46. If there's 
one there, you start thinking I can't play this guy. If he's got one at 16 and/or 52, 
like David Segui, then he's on his way to becoming an APBA museum piece.  As it 
happens, result 25 which is handled by the second baseman also turns the double play, 
but all batters are assigned a single 25. They may have anywhere form none to six 
24’s! I recall it was 1986 when Jim Rice set a record for GlDP's in a season. His 
card for that year reflected that dubious achievement by carrying six 24's. The 
lesson is clear: count the 24's to see how likely your man is to GIDP. Keep these 
guys out of the number three spot in the order!

    The Good Old Hit and Run Play

The other key out number is 31. How exciting can a fly out to center field be, you 
ask? It is true, the 30 fly to left, 31 fly to center, and 32 fly to right are 
boringly consistent outs. But APBA, in their wisdom, decided long ago to add a 
managers' option to the game system, and they called it the Hit and Run Play. You, as 
manager, can put this play on whenever there is a runner on first, or runners on 
first and third. What happens? First a 13 or 14 is a strike or a ball, respectively, 
and the runner on first tries to steal second. Depending on his base stealing 
ability, he may even make it. But the truly sinister nature of the hit and run play 
is the way it makes the infielders move out of position. Executed to perfection, the 
play succeeds in opening a hole in the infield, and the batter, aiming for that hole, 
gets a hit through the vacated location. And how is that outcome simulated. By result 
31! When 31 is a result on a hit and run, it is scored as a single “through the 
hole”, with the runner on first moving to third and the runner on third, if any, 
scoring. Every batter has a 31 on dice result 34. Many batters have a second 31 on 
their cards, usually placed at dice result 63 (it may, on rare occasions, be placed 
elsewhere). The hitter with two 31's is a good contact hitter, and is useful for the 
hit and run play. In the computer game, the rating the hitter gets for Hit and Run 
Ability is a count of the number of 31's on his card. Each year, very few batters get 
three 31's. These are the truly excellent hit and run men, who excel at contact 
hitting. Boggs and Tony Gwynn are frequently in this select group.

Carney Langsford is another, especially since he began hitting behind Ricky 
Henderson.  The best thing about the 31 is that it is unstoppable, by any pitcher or 
defense. Each hit number on the batter's card is worth approximately 30 points of 
batting average, so a .268 hitter, like Carney was in 1990, becomes a .360 hitter 
when a hit and run is callable. Imagine what happens to Boggs and Gwynn in that 
situation when they are not having off years. You have to be on the lookout for 31's. 
In 1989, an otherwise unexceptional player, Ken Oberkfell, had a card that had three 
31's. When Obie subbed at third for my team last year, he always batted behind a good 
base stealer. He frequently worked the hit and run perfection. As I said, you have to 
be on the lookout for these things.  The hit and run play serves yet another purpose, 
it cuts down on double plays, and moves runners into scoring position. This is 
reflected in the game system by converting numbers, like 24 and 25 that would be 
double plays, into an out at first, advancing the runner. Other ground outs are 
similarly affected. So what can go wrong on a hit and run? Not much; that is why so 
much discussion in league and replay activity centers on the use and abuse of the hit 
and run play. But there are some downsides. First, the runner can be thrown out 
stealing second. Also, play results 33 and 34, which in a normal plate appearance 
would be line drive outs, become line drive double plays, as the runner on first has 
no chance to get back to the bag. (Note that virtually all players get either one 33 
or one 34, in some cases, a hitter can be assigned one of each. The latter are not 
ideal hit and run batters.) The last hazard arises only in the first and third on 
base situation. On a 32 fly to right, the runner on first is doubled up when the 
right fielder throws to first before he can return . Still, the runner on third will 
score if there were no outs at the time.  Another way of looking at outs is that they 
are the flip side of hits. Some card readers look to see if the batter has an out on 
black 64. If not (and it may be that a rare play number or 14 is there), this is a 
good hitter; whether for average or on base ability remains to be seen. If there is 
an out on 64, next look at 42. If there is an out here as well, we are not eager to 
have this player in our everyday lineup. Outs are the context in which batters 
perform. A team gets only 27 of them per game, and I want my team to be made up of 
people who can minimize the number of outs they consume. It's rather like looking at 
an Escher print You have to see the pattern of outs, as well as the pattern of hits.  
There are two other things that baseball is made up of, pitching and defense.

In our next installment we will see what it means to read the card of a pitcher, and 
learn how defensive ratings are factored into the game of baseball, APBA style. We 
will show you how foul pops become base hits, and how you will see the wonders of the 
most perplexing play result in APBA, the wandering 12. Until then, 66's to you all