Greg is often lauded in these Draft Notes, and usually with good reason. But one thing in particular that I rarely mention was something that worked exceedingly well for him in 2001 -- he drafted a staff with great peripheral numbers. Mostly, this was in terms of selecting Z pitchers and guys with great moves to first. But this also had to do with selecting pitchers with low home run allowance grades, which allowed Greg to lead the league in home run allowance, a subject I want to focus on in this article.
Allow me to further preface the importance of home run allowance by displaying a few of the greatest seasons in our history by starting pitchers, and contrast those seasons with their next full season:
ERA W L PCT S G GS CG IP H R ER HR SO BB HPWPBK 2000 2.52 26 7 .788 0 33 33 31 293.0 186 95 82 30 326 79 4 2 0 2001 3.72 22 10 .688 0 33 33 31 293.1 200 127 121 49 331 67 12 0 0 1996 2.18 24 4 .857 0 29 29 28 260.0 163 75 63 20 282 105 6 3 1 1998 3.59 11 18 .379 0 31 31 27 263.0 169 111 105 45 263 102 10 0 0
The first comparison is Pedro, his record 26 win season for Greg in 2000, then his 2001 season. Though he won the Cy Young and Win titles, and nearly had the best ERA, he was a disappointment to Bob in 2001, mainly because of his 49 home runs allowed. Upon comparison, you see Pedro's season were remarkably similar minus the home run differential. In 1/3 of an inning more, he gave up 14 more hits, but walked 12 less batters. His strikeout total was only 5 off, wild pitch total just 2 off ... but the home run total was a glaring 19 off, which in 2001 led to 28 more runs allowed, an ERA 1.20 points higher, and the 4 less wins.
The second comparison is Randy Johnson, his '96 season for Oz, then his next full season for the Cosmo Kramers in '98. The latter season saw 3 more innings, 6 less hits, 3 more walks, 4 more hbp's -- essentially 7 more baserunners in the 3 additional innings -- but a whopping 25 more home runs allowed, leading to 36 more runs allowed, a 1.41 increase in ERA, and an appalling 13 less wins.
In my estimation, between Pedro and Johnson's best seasons and their follow-up, the only raw difference related to home runs allowed. I understand factors like support/9 make a difference in these equations, but I don't have those stats available. All things being the same, in the case of Pedro, the difference in home runs allowed translated to a .100 point differential in winning percentage, for Johnson, a ghastly .478 differential.
I don't have other individual specifics I want to focus on in this article, but a lot of team stats. In SL 1998, our first as a 9-team league, Joe's Peace Frogs and Ken's Gurnee GiAnts had very similar totals, except in regards to home run allowance.
ERA G CG Sh QS S IP H R ER HR K BB HB WP BK OBA Peace Frogs 4.55 162 49 6 61 25 1435.0 1411 787 726 209 1021 589 56 33 4 .261 Gurnee Giants 4.66 162 43 3 59 27 1459.0 1410 831 756 248 1166 550 64 20 1 .253
Joe's baserunners/9 was 12.89, Ken's the better 12.49. But the 39 additional home runs led to 44 more runs allowed. Consequently, the lower Runs/9 helped Joe turn a team with an offense that struggled (6th in the league) into 75 wins, whereas Ken, despite a fine (2nd best) offense could not overcome the home run allowed problems and could only produce 77 wins.
In 1999, Ken again presented an extreme regarding home run allowance. But because he drafted a staff with some of the best control in our history, he nearly won the ERA title. Here is how he stacked up against the teams who finished ahead of him.
ERA G CG Sh QS S IP H R ER HR K BB HB WP BK OBA Liverpool Longhorns 3.95 162 55 11 63 34 1464.1 1290 707 642 212 1041 527 38 15 1 .235 Barstow Dreamers 3.95 162 32 1 43 45 1473.1 1274 728 647 196 1242 544 47 20 4 .230 Windy City Tearers 4.10 162 43 4 63 24 1505.0 1437 765 686 254 1107 431 53 9 0 .250
Very simlilar totals ... Barstow 11.39 baserunners/9, Liverpool 11.40, Windy City 11.49. But significantly different home runs allowed/9 numbers ... Barstow 1.20, Liverpool 1.30, Windy City 1.52, thus some fair differences in Runs/9 ... Liverpool 4.35, Barstow 4.45, Windy City 4.57. Such differentials, among teams whose offenses were all within 12 runs of each other, helped provide win totals in favor of the teams with the better home runs allowed totals ... Liverpool 96 wins, Barstow 94 wins, Windy City 82 wins.
Ken and Joe were very similar again in 2000 in terms of baserunners/9, but again significantly different regarding home runs/9.
ERA G CG Sh QS S IP H R ER HR K BB HB WP BK OBA TRF Arctic Cats 5.14 162 21 1 25 31 1465.0 1495 938 836 269 1137 630 70 12 3 .262 Grand Portage ZM's 5.19 162 48 5 34 31 1445.2 1532 907 833 222 1058 589 48 13 1 .273
Ken's Arctic Cats gave up 13.48 baserunners/9, to Joe's Zebra Mussels 13.50. But the Cats 47 more home runs allowed in 19.1 more innings helped Joe earn a Runs/9 advantage of 5.65 to Ken's 5.76. Mixed with offensive totals, the higher home run allowance Cats (4th most runs scored) could only muster 72 wins, while Joe's lower home run allowance helped overcome his weak offense (8th in runs scored) as he managed 78 wins.
So what conclusions can be drawn? Steve Swinea and T.H. White have said many times over the years that might is right in the SL ... but I would amend that slightly based on these instances where allowing home runs seems to be quite harmful, saying instead that keeping might in its place is right in the SL.
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