Leisure City 4 Baggers 2014 draft evaluation and Insight...

GM-Frank

For the first time, I felt the pain all of you have felt trying to manage a full time traditional job with heavy parental demands when trying to prepare for the annual event known as the Summer League Draft...I was in no hurry to start the draft early(for the first time) as my draft notebook was highly abridged from past years...I had incomplete positional lists and really had not spent any time evaluating the players. I was just happy to have a mobile source of information to draft from work. I was also picking the wrong swing...#8.

Expectations...
Everyone expects to do well, and by in large, with the exception of last year, the entire league is typically bunched together most of the season. Drafting from the 8 slot meant the focus had to be on identifying poor offensive positions and trying to get the best player at the weak spots, SS/2b/C in particular even 3b was thin...Although, once again, leading into the draft, I had anticipated drafting pitching from the top, I did not think Kershaw would fall to 8, but I was prepared and planning to take Fernandez and Buchholz 1-2. (did I mention I did not scout much) and then, the weekend before the draft I came to realize Buchholz did not qualify to start, and I did not like the combo of Fernandez and Greinke/Scherzer/Lee enough to commit to the all pitching route out of the gate. I expected Cano to be there, but I also thought TULO and Mauer might be there too, so when 8 did come around Cano was the only choice, I then surprised myself w/ Goldschmidt, because he wasn't even on my radar and 1bmen are usually a dime a dozen, but not so much this year? In the post steroid era that we are now managing, POWER is at a premium...there were very few (14) players w/30 or more HR (4 of those went undrafted),so there are only 10 guys in the league w/ +30 mlb HR's...Goldshmidt's 36 HR sealed the deal.

In this post steroid era, I decided that instead of trying to beat good pitching w/ offense, I wanted to try and commit to an above average starting 5and let them lead the way?, but I knew it would be at an offensive price...After we took 4 offensive players, the time to commit to pitching fell into place taking 4 starters in a row and had all 5 locked in by round 12. We expect this to be an edge, time will tell? Even though there was indecision and some debate throughout this draft, I never felt like I missed out on any positional runs and I don't feel like I had any desire/targeted player get taken before I could pull the trigger, so in that regard, this draft went well.

Offensive Expectations...
The FIRST FOUR...Cano/Goldschmidt/Beltre/Posey need to produce in the triple crown categories... Cano at 2b is solid, similar #'s to last season from what I can tell, a bit lower in the power categories, but by far the best 2b offensive player in the league. Goldschmidt could walk into Jakes tomorrow and I wouldn't know who he was, but I like his numbers (I wonder what his card looks like?) Beltre and Posey I expect/need to be solid contributors. None of the First Four are special runners/basestealers, and the double play will be a concern once again at the top of the lineup, but I can live with that. The BOTTOM FIVE...the rest of the lineup offensively will be interesting to me...Brett Gardner/Cabrera/Drew/Quentin/Blackmon/Gordon are all ho-hum pieces that hopefully get on base. I do not see lots of power at the bottom Quentin may produce nicely, but his injury card must be off the charts?...at DH we like Carlos Santana, who played a lot and well last year, and his #'s look better to me this year? So I think I have 6 solid hitters and 3 prayers. Baserunning should be OK, you know I like to send em! I believe Johnson,Murphy and Marte allow me to pinch run for Posey/Beltre late...and Gordon/Drew/Blackmon are all 35's...even Cano has a 34 this year...Goldschmidt is a 27, so even he can run a little bit.

Pitching Expectations...
As previously stated, we planned to commit to solid pitching. Now, the argument can be made that pitching is loaded and all staffs are solid, and that's not far from true. But I think that is when compared to "the past"- offensive era teams, where an 11z was a plus starter...Now a days, 11z is below average? or am I wrong? With that being said, Im not super happy only having 2 Z's in the rotation, but the rotation I expect to carry this team. IF we don't pitch well, this team is going to crash and burn. 16xy/14xy/14x/13xz/12yz make up the staff and they MUST eat innings and keep us in games or we are going to have epic failure. Darvish and Bumgarner I expect to pitch great...simply fell in love w/their hits to innings pitch #'s...Darvish 14xy did not get a W this year, but he will walk a bunch, but he should also strikeout a boat load. I committed to the starters and let relief slide only in the sense of Games and Innings...the guys we got are solid quality 23xyzH/21xyH/19z/17xyzH/& 2 16zG, we just cant use them a lot, but by design, we don't expect to have to?! If im going to the pen in the 3rd inning, once again, we are in big trouble. I expect to lead the league in Complete games.

Defensive Expectations...
Nothing spectacular...1b-5, SS9 (for half a year or late innings depending on how the hitting shapes up) Cano and Beltre saw their Defensive grades drop in 2014...Posey 8+2 shouldn't scare too many elite runners. The outfield is very mediocre. Gardner 3/31, Gordon 3/34, and then....Quentin 1/34 will see starts...Blackmon 2/29 only has offensive attributes but will see starts( 25 in CF)...As a result of these 2, we added Starling Marte late to run and play 3/34 defense for these 2 guys. The highly regarded Elliot Johnson flashes all sorts of back up leather and Ryan Hanigan comes in w/ a late lead flaunting his 9+6 rating. We expect to struggle defensively, but hopefully we strikeout the majority of opponents and lead the league in lack of chances?

Good Expectations...
We really liked the Johnson/Hanigan swing that may have raised an eyebrow...I have already defended this publicly.
We really like Santana in the 9th and Drew in the 19th
Bad Expectations...
Not high on RYU...but 12 z lefties have faired well in the past for me...even though that is ridiculous logic.
Scared about the lack of bullpen...especially coming off of last year's warm blanket bullpen.

Expectations for the Season...
We expect another World Series appearance...why not?
Go 4 Baggers!
GO SL