SL 2006 Manhattan Old Fashioneds Midseason Report


3 separate times have fought back to .500 after being as much as 7 games below. High water mark of +1.

Team's records when not playing me (as of 7/7/2006):

Belize        31-34     0.477     
Zanzibar      32-38     0.457     
Kilamanjaro   31-39     0.443     
China         38-27     0.585     
Festus        32-28     0.533     
Vail          28-37     0.431     
Mason         43-32     0.573     
Potawatomi    35-35     0.500     

Not major changes in the divisions, but some.

Teams that salivate when I'm coming to town:
Belize 10-5, Vail 7-3.

Teams that I've played well against:
Festus 8-2, Mason Corner 7-3.


First half overachievers OPS:

Tracy       +25(+53 ISO)
Cameron     -2 (+45 ISO)
Soriano     -3 (+20 ISO)
Eckstein    -4 (+9 ISO)
Crisp (doesn't count)
Roberts    -68 (+15 ISO)

First half underachievers OPS:

Piedra    -230 (-59 ISO)
Varitek   -246 (-87 ISO)
Lopez (doesn't count)
Walker    -260 (-95 ISO)
Clark     -302 (-46 ISO)

Generally "on pace" OPS:

Cabrera   -103
DeJesus   -118
Giles     -173
Pujols    -179 (-57 ISO though)
Ausmus    -201

Overall: 3 key guys between 6.3 and 6.6 runs created per game (Pujols, Cabrera, Roberts).

Things that should turn around:

Varitek, 3.2 runs created per game, showed more his capabilities with 5 doubles and 3 walks (7 rbis) vs. Festus in 4 game period.

Things that cannot continue (on the good side):

Eckstein hitting .290 with 40 rbis (5.1 runs created/game) in the 9 spot. DHs hitting .280 with 43 XBHs (including 24 homers!) and 58 rbis.

Things that cannot continue (on the bad side):

Three 34 or 35 steal grade basestealers 19 of 29 stealing, including Soriano 7 of 12. Catchers only 31 walks and .273 OBP between them - would've projected around 45 walks and .310 OBP.


First half overachievers:

Suppan 3.52 ERA and 2 shutouts, although with limited exposure (74 innings).

First half underachievers:

Santana 4.24 ERA. 26 homers allowed. (although ERA first 40, 4.24, ERA second 40 4.23, so is he really underachieving?)

Which side of the rollercoaster are you on:
Contreras first 8 starts: 2.68 ERA
second 8 starts: 5.29 ERA.
Silva first 8 starts: 60 IP 57h 4.20 ERA
second 8 starts: 40 IP 66h 8.17 ERA.
Byrd first 8 starts: 46 IP 49h 12bb 5.91 ERA
second 8 starts: 59 IP 49h 18bb 3.39 ERA.

Team first 40 games: 67 homers allowed, 157 earned runs allowed
second 40 games: 49 homers allowed, 178 earned runs allowed.

Bullpen ERA first 40 games 3.49
second 40 games 3.95.


Signs for optimism.

Team +44 in runs scored (416 for/372 against). A .528 Pythagorean (I believe, if my math is right), which should translate into a 42-38 record, instead of 40-40.

Team averaging 5.2 runs/game to lead league. .326 OBP to lead league.

Pitching staff second last in ERA at 4.23, however ERA has dropped .41 in past 15 games.

Lead league with 29 quality starts. Second in league in WHIP.

Signs for pessimism.

Scored 17 or less runs in 3 separate series.

Despite scoring well and pitching ok, only .500 team. No real signs of spots that will improve in second half above accounting for a similar spot that should decline.

This all means in the second half:

The 4 core offensive guys are all about where they should be (due to Giles 457 OBP in last 15 games catching him up), assuming Pujols will pick up slightly to cover Roberts's likely slight slide. The peripheral guys, mostly Walker & Varitek, need to make up for Eckstein & the DHs probable slide. Doable? Somewhere between possibly and probably. Overall, I'd say pretty close to where the team should be offensively. Pitching should be similar in that some should make up for other's declines. Bullpen should improve somewhat, I'd guess, as Betancourt shouldn't be a 4.5 ERA pitcher.

Team is pretty good, I think, and has played superior to its current record. Can only hope to reflect that in second half and be in playoff battle.